Date: Tue, 26 Mar 2002 00:09:15 -0500 Reply-To: Maryland Birds & Birding Sender: Maryland Birds & Birding From: "rick@blazie.net" Subject: Marshall Iliff's Flawed Gull Predictions MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Marshall, commenting on the wonderful find of the Lesser Black-backed = Gull in Allegany county made the following predictions about the next = gulls to show up there.=20 "...my pick for 5th-10th gull species in Allegany are as follows: 5) Sabine's Gull 6) Black-legged Kittiwake 7) Franklin's Gull 8) Little Gull 9) Great Black-backed Gull 10) Glaucous Gull Number 5 above is way ahead of the others as next most likely...sure to happen someday soon. Amazingly, Great Black-backed Gull hasn't even occurred west of = Frederick County, except for an undocumented report from the Potomac River several years ago." I bow to no one in my admiration (awe even) ofMarshall's knowledge about = the distribution of birds but I have a slightly different take.=20 I would have put Sabine's near the bottom of the list. First on the = list would be Franklin's. That assumes that Laughing has already been = counted and is not eligible. Franklin's is an overland vagrant in fall = and spring from the Bay to the great Lakes region (and vice versa = obviously). Back in the days when people looked diligently we found them = every year in both seasons, usually in multiples. They still are found = when people look hard enough int he right season. There are a great many = more records of Franklin's for Maryland than Sabines (nearly 50 - 1?). = Any dark backed gull in western Maryland has a reasonable chance of = being a Franklin's.=20 Kittiwake I would put dead last, it being virtually unrecorded west = of the Bay (I count Conowingo as the upper extreme of the Bay).=20 Both Little and Black-headed are far better candidates than Sabines = (IMHO). Both travel through MD with Bonaparte's Gulls and if you look at = enough Bonis you will eventually find a Little or a Black-headed. There = is even a rule for this, The O'Brien/Blom Law of Bonapartes, which says, = in part: Anytine you find at least 750 Bonaparte's Gulls in Maryland you = have a better than even chance of finding a Little or a Black-headed = Gull. I have seen flocks of Bonis at both Deep Creek Lake and Rocky Gap, = so both are legitimate contenders.=20 I would even put Great Black-backed above Sabine's, although I might = put both Glaucous and Iceland ahead of it.=20 Of course, birds are not cooperative and there is another law that = says that predictions will always be wrong. The next gull in western = Maryland will undoubtedly turn out to be something like Thayer's or = California.=20 Rick PS - The "undocumented" report of the Great Black-backed from the = Potomac was in Washington County just a few hundred yards above the = Frederick County line. I am certain of the location because I saw it. Eirik A.T. Blom 4318 Cowan Place Belcamp, Md 21017 410-575-6086 rick@blazie.net =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D To leave the MDOsprey list, send e-mail to listserv@home.ease.lsoft.com with the following message in line 1: signoff mdosprey =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D =========================================================================