Bonnie predicted to slow over North Carolina
Rob Hilton (robert@csa.com)
Wed, 26 Aug 1998 17:29:49 -0400
Hi,
here is the 5 pm Discussion for Hurricane Bonnie.....It is not a good time
to be in North Carolina right now.
I have annotated the latitude/longitude information with approximate
predicted locations.
It doesn't seem like the storm will be affecting Pennsylvania or the
Washington, DC, area too much...
Apologies for cross-posting and if you already heard about this on The
Weather Channel....
Best,
Rob
>HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
>NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
>5 PM EDT WED AUG 26 1998
>
>A NEW AND POTENTIALLY SERIOUS FORECAST PROBLEM HAS ARISEN.
>AT THE MOMENT...BONNIE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT...AND ITS
>CENTER IS COMING ASHORE. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF TODAY/S COMPUTER
>SIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT THE NEARBY SHORT-WAVE COULD BYPASS THE
>HURRICANE...LEAVING IT TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY FOR A DAY OR TWO. IF
>THIS OCCURS...IT COULD CREATE AN ENORMOUS FLOOD PROBLEM.
>
>SUPPORTING THIS CONSIDERATION IS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS THE
>NEARBY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AXIS NOW APPROACHING THE LONGITUDE OF
>BONNIE. THE NE-SW STRETCHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ALSO
>SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH MIGHT BE EXERTING ITS MAXIMUM INFLUENCE ON
>THE MOTION OF BONNIE AT THIS TIME.
>
>FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY
>THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND NOW KEEPS THE CENTER OVER EASTERN NORTH
>CAROLINA THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL
>FORECAST.
>
>A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT REPORTED 116 KT AT THE 8000 FT FLIGHT
>LEVEL. A DROPWINDSONDE RELEASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY THE AIR
>FORCE MEASURED 110 KT IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL NOT FAR ABOVE THE
>SURFACE. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE 100 KT. WEAKENING
>WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL.
>
>WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO
>ACCOMMODATE THE CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK.
>
>THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY EXTRAPOLATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
>959 MB. DROPSONDE PRESSURES...NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS FIX...HAVE
>BEEN CONSISTENTLY 3 OR 4 MB HIGHER.
>
>RAPPAPORT
>
>FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
>
>INITIAL 26/2100Z 34.0N 78.0W 100 KTS...INLAND
5 pm Wednesday
just barely inland -- Wilmington/Cape Fear/Kure Beach
115 mph
>12HR VT 27/0600Z 34.8N 77.7W 90 KTS...INLAND
Thursday 2 am
just West of New Bern
105 mph
>24HR VT 27/1800Z 35.6N 77.3W 70 KTS...INLAND
Thursday 2 pm
some 25-50 miles Northeast of New Bern
80 mph
>36HR VT 28/0600Z 36.4N 76.3W 65 KTS...INLAND
Friday 2 am
right near Elizabeth City
75 mph
>48HR VT 28/1800Z 38.1N 73.2W 60 KTS
Friday 2 pm
100 miles or so East of Ocean City
70 mph
>72HR VT 29/1800Z 41.5N 63.5W 55 KTS
Saturday 2 pm
way out
60-65 mph
Rob Hilton
robert@csa.com
Bethesda, MD