> However, in my experience the chances of leaving the dock this time of
> year is about 33% on any given day, so 25% is not all that bad.

I have to respectfully disagree with you on this one.  I've been doing winter
pelagics since the mid-80s and although there are certainly more cancellations
during the cold weather than warm, I think the rate is closer to 2/3 sailing,
not 1/3.  In a normal year, more trips sail than are cancelled.  There are, of
course, exceptional years.  SLP's inaugural year of 2003 was described by one
captain as "the worst weather year I've seen in 30 years".  But in 2004, I
think we sailed something like 7 out of 8 times.


And although forecasts have improved, I still don't trust them much more than 24
 hours out unless there's a massive storm that is impossible to avoid.  I've
gone on days the forecast was for pure hell just 24 hours before, and turned
out to be beautiful.  On the flip side, this fall I was fishing in a small
center console in 4'-5' waves with winds a solid 20 while NOAA weather radio
was telling us how nice it was!


For now, of course, I'm just hoping we have good weather for Saturday!



-PAG

Paul A. Guris
See Life Paulagics
P.O. Box 161
Green Lane, PA 18054
www.paulagics.com
215-234-6805
paul _AT_ paulagics.com