Hey Ed:
You might be right. I drafted my message the night before, but did
not send it until yesterday afternoon and the predictions are now
indeed changing. However, my info at the time was based on the
prediction of Joe Bastardi of AccuWeather, who has an excellent
record in predicting hurricanes. At the time, he felt the Ernesto
track would drift to the east of the National Hurricane Center's prediction.
He was exactly right with Katrina, a full week before. Of course, in
your line of work, you are more closely tied to the meteorology business!
We shall see ...
It's still a good opportunity to study up on seabirds ...
Phil
At 00:32 08/30/2006, Edward Boyd wrote:
>I hope that I am wrong but my money says that this storm will likely
>be a bust for Maryland birders. It is not expected to reach
>hurricane strength in its travels over the next nearly 72 hours of
>travels towards MD. The storm is currently over mainland Florida, is
>expected to exit near Cape Canaveral and then run ashore south of
>Myrtle Beach in the afternoon on Thursday. It'll then travel for 24
>hours over North Carolina and Virginia before reaching the
>Hagerstown area late on Saturday. This course does not present the
>best opportunities for the storm to pick-up birds along the way in
>the waters of the gulf stream to drop in Maryland. Winds are
>currently expected to drop to 35 MPH by Richmond and be under 30 by
>Hagerstown. This is a relatively small sized tropical system. I hope
>that I'm wrong, but I'd be surprised to hear that more than a couple
>of southern terns shows up anywhere along this storm's path. It
>never hurts to try and if anything changes as far as the storm's
>course shifting to the east or unexpected strengthening (which it
>did not do over the Florida Straits) than more potential may exist.
>For those that try, I hope that you prove me incorrect and do better
>than I expect.
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Phil Davis Davidsonville, Maryland USA
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