I don't believe this has been posted yet. Hit the delete key if you've
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Tyler Bell

California, MD


-----Original Message-----
From: Rambo, Kyle
Sent: Monday, October 23, 2006 9:00 AM
Subject: FW: Ontario Winter Finch Forecast

Forwarding the Winter Finch Forecast by Ron Pittaway of the Ontario
Field Ornithologists.  The predictions are for, and based mostly on data
from, Ontario.  Doesn't look like it's going to be a very good winter
finch year in Maryland.

GENERAL FINCH FORECAST 2006 - 2007 

This is one of those rare years when most conifers (softwoods) and
broad-leaved deciduous trees (hardwoods) have synchronized bumper seed
crops across much of Eastern Canada and the bordering United States.
It will be an excellent winter to see winter finches in northern Ontario
and central Ontario (e.g., Algonquin Park). Very few boreal finches will
move south of Ontario this fall and winter. Most finches likely will be
scarce even in southern Ontario south of the Canadian Shield this
winter, despite bumper seed crops on native and ornamental species.
There also are bumper cone crops in Quebec, the Maritime Provinces, New
York and northern New England States, so finches will be there too, but
in what numbers is the question, because excellent crops are so
widespread this year. There are good cone crops west of Lake Superior in
northwestern Ontario, but cone quality diminishs towards Manitoba
because of severe drought conditions this year. Cone crops are generally
poor at the continental extremes in Newfoundland and Alaska. Both
White-winged and Red Crossbills have been arriving in Ontario since late
June in areas with bumper cone crops. In addition to individual finch
forecasts, I also comment on other irruptive species, such as the
Red-breasted Nuthatch, whose movements are linked to winter finches. I
added a new section this year called Finch Notes.
It discusses bumper seed crops, how crossbills find cone crops, when
crossbills move to bumper crops, when crossbills nest, road-killed
finches, and where to see finches this winter in Ontario. 

INDIVIDUAL FINCH FORECASTS 

Pine Grosbeak: Most Pine Grosbeaks will stay in northern Ontario because
the berry crop on mountain-ash (rowan berries) is excellent to bumper
this year. As well, the large seed and berry crops on other trees and
shrubs provide ample buffer food supplies to keep the grosbeaks in the
north. A few Pine Grosbeaks may drift as far south as Algonquin Park
where they are seen most winters. 

Purple Finch: The excellent tree seed crops on most coniferous and
deciduous trees suggest that most (not all) Purple Finches will spend
this winter in northern and central Ontario. Some may drift south in
late winter and show up at feeders, which is typical of this species in
big seed years as seed supplies diminish in late winter. 

Red Crossbill: Taxonomy and nomenclature are hopelessly confused. The
Red Crossbill complex comprises at least eight types or forms (possibly
full species) with different vocalizations and bill sizes related to
cone preferences. Two or three forms are regular in Ontario. One prefers
hemlock cones and the others are adapted mostly to pines, mainly white
pine in Ontario. Red Crossbills have been seen and heard singing in
hemlocks in August suggesting that the small-billed hemlock subspecies
'sitkensis' has moved into central Ontario where hemlock cone crops are
excellent as in Algonquin Park and the Haliburton Highlands. The hemlock
form has the smallest bill of all Red Crossbills, even smaller than the
White-winged Crossbill's stubby bill. Road-killed 'sitkensis' can be
identified by measuring their bills (culmen 13.5-15 mm). White pine cone
crops, unlike other conifers, are poor in most of central Ontario such
as Algonquin Park.
However, some areas of northeastern Ontario have good white pine crops
such as Marten River and Timmins. Watch for pine types of Red Crossbills
wherever white and red pines have good cone crops. Since spruce cones
are so abundant this year, I expect that Red Crossbills will be found
feeding in spruce to some extent this winter. 

White-winged Crossbill: Like a pendulum, White-winged Crossbills move
back and forth across the northern coniferous forests from Newfoundland
to Alaska searching for cone crops. White-winged Crossbills will be
widespread and perhaps common in many areas of northern and central
Ontario because of the bumper seed crops on spruces, tamarack, balsam
fir and hemlock. I expect that the highest concentrations of White-wings
will be in northeastern Ontario between Lake Superior and Quebec where
the super bumper crop of white spruce cones is "a 1-in-20-year cyclical
phenomenon" making this is a rather rare event in seed production for
white spruce (Scott McPherson, pers.
comm.). White-winged Crossbills began increasing in northern Ontario in
late June and increased during July associated with big cone crops.
They are singing and feasting on an abundance of cone seeds and probably
nesting. They likely will begin nesting again in early 2007.
White-winged Crossbills in Algonquin Park have been widespread in small
numbers since July and are singing. Nesting is suggested by two
sightings of recently fledged young in August. White-winged Crossbills
possibly came from western Canada and Alaska wandering eastward
searching for cone crops. One reason why there are no subspecies on this
continent versus the eight or more types of Red Crossbills is that
White-winged Crossbill populations oscillate east and west across North
America, and thus are constantly mixing. This allows outcrossing and
gene flow among populations, suppressing the formation of geographical
variation. 

Common Redpoll: This is not a flight year for redpolls in southern
Ontario. Most Common and Hoary Redpolls will be in northern Ontario this
winter because seed crops on white birch and alder are excellent to
bumper there. As well, yellow birch has an excellent crop from
southeastern Lake Superior into Quebec. This large crop will stall any
redpolls wandering south of the boreal zone. A few redpolls may get as
far south as Algonquin Park, but likely no farther. 

Pine Siskin: Most Pine Siskins will winter in northern and probably
central Ontario this winter because cones crops are bumper on spruces,
balsam fir, tamarack (larch), cedar and hemlock. Flocks of siskins can
be identified at a distance by their distinctive flight formation.
They swirl in tight flocks whereas redpolls fly in loose undulating
flocks. Siskins should breed early next spring in northern Ontario.
Only one subspecies occurs across Canada, indicating that highly nomadic
siskin populations mix from coast to coast, inhibiting the formation of
geographical variation. 

Evening Grosbeak: Evening Grosbeaks will stay in the boreal forest this
winter because tree seed crops are excellent on conifers and hardwoods
such as black ash. Expect a few in Algonquin Park, particularly around
the feeders at the Visitor Centre. The eastern population of Evening
Grosbeaks started declining in 1980 as large outbreaks of spruce budworm
subsided. The population is probably stable now, but much reduced from
the 1970s when Evening Grosbeaks were common at bird feeders. 

OTHER IRRUPTIVE SPECIES 

Blue Jay: A small to moderate flight is expected. The good to excellent
crop of beechnuts on American beech in most areas of central and
southern Ontario should keep most Blue Jays from migrating south this
September and October along the shorelines of Lakes Ontario and Erie.
Blue Jays are now actively storing beechnuts.
Also, there are excellent crops of hazelnuts which will add to the
nonmigratory tendency of Blue Jays this fall. The red oak acorn crop is
poor in most areas of central Ontario, but the lack of acorns should be
compensated for by the large mast crops on other deciduous trees and
shrubs. 

Red-breasted Nuthatch: Most Red-breasted Nuthatches will not migrate
south this fall. The bumper cone crops across Ontario will hold most
Red-breasted Nuthatches close to their northern breeding grounds this
winter. When Red-breasted Nuthatches winter in the boreal forest they
eat conifer seeds so are closely linked to finches. 

Bohemian Waxwing: The excellent to bumper crop of mountain-ash (rowan
berries) will keep most Bohemians Waxwings close to the boreal forest
this winter. 

Boreal Forest Owls: The widespread abundance of seeds, berries, nuts and
fruits (mast) is providing a huge food supply for small mammals such as
voles so their numbers should be increasing. Most boreal forest owls
(Northern Hawk Owl, Great Gray Owl, Boreal Owl) likely will stay close
to breeding territories this winter. Increasing numbers of small mammals
will increase owl breeding success next spring and summer. 

FINCH NOTES 

Why Bumper Tree Seed Crops? One theory of bumper crops is to ensure
adequate seed supplies will germinate above the losses to consumers such
as fungi, insects, mammals and birds. Many trees have low seed
production in most followed by periodic bumper crops producing huge
surpluses beyond the capacity of seed consumers. Tree species normally
synchronize seed crops with members of their own species across hundreds
of kilometres/miles and they sometimes synchronize with other species as
has happened this year in the Northeast. This year's bumper crops
probably resulted from last year's hot and dry stress conditions
throughout most of the Northeast. Most plants under stress one year will
produce more seed the following year as a form of survival. The size of
the seed crop the following year is largely determined by the weather at
the time of flowering and pollination. If the weather is too cold or too
hot the flower buds will not develop properly. If there is too much rain
during pollination and no wind then poor pollination takes place. This
year in the Northeast the weather was perfect for most conifer and
hardwood species. However, white pine and red oak are two significant
species with poor seed crops in 2006 in central Ontario. Why these two
species? First, white pine cones take two summers to ripen as opposed to
spruce, fir, tamarack, cedar and hemlock which ripen in one summer. Last
year white pine grew a drought stressed crop of immature conelets with
considerable losses, resulting in a generally poor crop maturing this
year. Second, red oak had abundant flowers in May but produced few
acorns this year because the weather turned cool and wet just when its
flowers were ready to pollinate. 

How Do Crossbills Find Bumper Cone Crops? Crossbills (and other finches,
particularly siskins) can locate big cone crops half a continent or more
away. Crossbills have well-developed sensory and nervous systems and the
evidence is clear that they respond to external stimuli such as growing
seed crops. The ability of crossbills to find bumper cone crops suggests
something more than random searching, but we do not know how they do it.
Ian Newton in his classic 1972 book on "Finches" suggested that
crossbills could assess the potential of upcoming cone crops when moving
between areas. There is much to learn about nomadic winter finches. 

When Do Crossbills Move To Bumper Seed Crops? Before big crossbill
nestings, they normally begin arriving in summer in areas with
developing bumper cone crops. This summer there were reports of
crossbills moving in Minnesota, northern Michigan, northeastern Ontario
(both species), central Ontario (both species in Algonquin Park),
northern New York State (Red Crossbills), Quebec (White-winged
Crossbills), northern New Hampshire (White-winged Crossbills), Maine
(White-winged Crossbills) and New Brunswick (White-winged Crossbills).
In years when either Red or White-winged Crossbills nested in late
winter and early spring in Algonquin Park, numbers were high in the
preceding late summer and fall. 

When Do Crossbills Nest? The following information is courtesy of Ron
Tozer from his draft manuscript for The Birds of Algonquin Park. (A)
White-winged Crossbills nest during two main periods in Algonquin Park.
(1) The main nestings are in late December to mid-March with fledged
juveniles seen from late March to late May. (2) July and August nestings
produce young seen in early August to mid-October. (B) Red Crossbills
also nest during two main periods. (1) Adults with dependent young have
been seen in late April to mid-June from nestings in January, February
and probably March. (2) Adults with dependent young seen from mid-August
to late October are from nestings in June and probably July. Both
species nest occasionally outside the core periods described above.
Note: The presence of independent streaked young in either species does
not necessarily indicate local breeding because the juvenile plumage can
be retained for a considerable time. 

Road-killed Finches: This could be a winter when thousands of winter
finches are killed by cars in places such as Algonquin Park and the
Haliburton Highlands. Finches are attracted to the salt and sand put on
highways. They have little fear of cars. I remember one collision that
killed 63 siskins in Algonquin Park. Common Ravens have an easy time
patrolling for road kills. When you see finches on the road, slow down,
flash lights and tap your horn several times. Finches often do not
respond in time. Be careful not to confuse other drivers. 

Where To See Winter Finches: This will be a good year for a winter trip
to Algonquin Park. The park is a three hours drive north of Toronto.
White-winged Crossbills and Pine Siskins should be common, although
siskins have been absent to date. Red Crossbills, Purple Finches and
Evening Grosbeaks are possible in smaller numbers. A few Pine Grosbeaks
are likely, but most will be farther north. Redpolls should stay farther
north this winter in the boreal forest. Drive Highway 60 in early
morning watching for flocks of finches attracted to the salt and sand
put on the highway to reduce accidents. There are feeders at the Visitor
Centre, which is open only on weekends in winter. Arrangements can be
made to view the feeders on weekdays. For the latest information on
finches, call the Visitor Centre at
613-637-2828 or e-mail Ron Tozer (retired park naturalist) at . 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 

I thank the many birders and staff of the Ontario Ministry of Natural
Resources (OMNR) whose composite knowledge and reports allowed me to
make reasonable predictions about finches in Ontario this fall and
winter. They are Dennis Barry (Durham Region), Shirley Davidson (OMNR
Minden), Nancy DeWitt (Alaska), Bruce Di Labio (Eastern Ontario),
Shelagh Duckett (OMNR, Thunder Bay), Chris Fagyal (Minnesota), Tyler
Hoar (Laurentians, Quebec), Michel Gosselin (Gatineau Hills, Quebec),
Charity Hendry (Angus Tree Seed Nursery), Leo Heyens (OMNR Kenora),
Brandon Holden (Algonquin Park), Peter Hynard (OMNR Haliburton), Jean
Iron (Toronto and Temagami), Bob Knudsen (Ontario Parks, Algoma), Scott
McPherson (OMNR Northeast Region), Larry Neily (Ottawa),  John Miles
(Selkirk Provincial Park, Lake Erie), Brian Naylor (OMNR North
Bay) Janet Pineau (Arrowhead Provincial Park), Fred Pinto (OMNR
Sudbury), Rick Salmon (OMNR Lake Nipigon), Ron Tozer (Algonquin Park,
Marten River, Moosonee), Declan Troy (Alaska), Mike Turner (OMNR
Brancroft District), Stan Vasiliauskas (OMNR Northeast Region), Mike
Walsh (OMNR Muskoka and Parry Sound) and Matt Young (upstate New York).
Matt Young's posts this summer on New York State listservs have been
helpful. I am grateful to Ron Tozer for reviewing this post and for
information from his draft manuscript for The Birds of Algonquin Park. 

RECENT FINCH FORECASTS ARCHIVED 

Larry Neily has archived recent finch forecasts at 

http://ca.geocities.com/larry.neily AT rogers.com/pittaway05.htm 


REFERENCES 

1. Bolgiano, N.C. 2004. Cause and Effect: Changes in Boreal Bird
Irruptions in Eastern North America Relative to the 1970s Spruce Budworm
Infestations. In 104th Christmas Bird Count 2003-2004 issue.
American Birds 58:26-33. 2. Newton, I. 1972. Finches. 288 pages.
Collins. 3. Pittaway, R. 1998. Winter Finches. OFO News 16(1):5-7. 

Ron Pittaway
8 September 2006
Ontario Field Ornithologists
Minden and Toronto ON