As of the latest forecast, the National Hurricane Center is predicting that this storm will come ashore in the Charleston, SC area as a high category 2 storm. The predicted track has taken a big change to the east over this same time yesterday when the track was forecasted to reach land near Savannah and then move inland to move northward west of the Appalachians. The current track would put it over the central Maryland area by mid-day Saturday with winds likely in the mid-40 MPH range or just below Tropical Storm force.. Since the eye will be moving from the south-southwest, I would expect some higher tidal waters to affect the areas on the east side of the bay, especially the areas of the upper bay and areas with southwestern exposures. 
 
National Hurricane Center Advisory:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT3+shtml/020828.shtml
National Hurricane Forecasted Storm Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/082915.shtml?5day#contents
 
One thing to keep in mind is the mariner's 1-2-3 rule, which essentially states that the forecasts can be off by 100 miles east or west of the predicted track in 24 hours, 200 miles in 48 hours and 300 miles in 72 hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/082915.shtml?basin#contents
 
With this in mind, and considering the amount of change in the last 24 hours, I would suggest keeping your plans wide open for the next few days as the direction of the track gets better known.. The storm is currently meandering to the south/southwest at about 2 knots over the lower Bahama Islands. The models all pretty much agree with the eventual movement to the north/northwest and that is why the track is currently positioned over SC. Much could change until the storm really gets up a good head of steam. Then, as with most of these storms, once ashore there will likely be a fair amount of alteration to the expected path that the dying storm will take.

Although the information in which the graphics are assembled are the same as with the NHC, you might find the presentation at Intellicast to be easier to interpret:
 
http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Track.aspx
 Edward Boyd
Westminster, MD 



----- Original Message ----
From: Leo Weigant <>
To: 
Sent: Tuesday, September 2, 2008 9:05:56 AM
Subject: Re: [MDOSPREY] Hurricane Hannah and historical precedents

Who says arcane historical data can't be inspiring?

Leo Weigant

On Sep 2, 2008, at 12:40 AM, Phil Davis wrote:

> MD Osprey:
>
> Although it's still about four days away, Hurricane Hanna is  
> currently forecasted (by my favorite hurricane forecaster--Joe  
> Bastardi of Accuweather) to make landfall around GA/SC and then  
> push north toward the DC area.
>
> FWIW, this storm may approximate the same track as the Cat 3/4  
> "Great Storm of 1893" (aka, the "Sea Islands Hurricane") which  
> brought the first North American record of Band-rumped Storm-Petrel  
> to the Potomac River when it passed over our area as a 65 mph  
> tropical storm on Aug 29-30 of that year.
>
>        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1893_Sea_Islands_Hurricane
>
>        http://www.wunderground.com/auto/marylandweather/hurricane/ 
> at189306.asp
>
> Phil
>
>
> ==================================
> Phil Davis      Davidsonville, Maryland    USA
>                mailto:[log in to unmask]
> ==================================