Rob,
 
In your previous post you mentioned that the storm from the 1800's had 4 days of travel over open water to pick-up birds, well this one will have 5 since it formed 2 days ago and won't make land until Friday. In the case of the Atlantic Storms, I'm not sure that this is as important as you might think. Since a large concentration of the birds that show up inland after landfall of these storms are the same species that are seen in the gulf stream waters with-in 100 miles of the Atlantic Coastline, many of these birds are probably picked up relatively close to shore. I think that birds that have several days to work their way out of harms way may work their way out of the main body of the storm.I believe that it's the forward edge of the storms that catches these birds when it approaches land that prevents the birds from transitioning out laterally, especially birds on the northeast side where winds and conditions are strongest. In addition, I don't
 really know what the concentrations of sea birds are like in the distant waters of the open Atlantic, but I recall reading that sailors used to know that they were approaching land when seabirds would start showing up during their crossings. The rich waters of the Gulf Stream certainly would be more likely to have concentrations that are larger than the open Atlantic.
 
Since I sent out my last message, the NHC has altered the forecast on this storm in regards to both track and intensity. They have downgraded the storm's intensity potential from a high category 2 storm to a mid-category 1 with max winds around 85 MPH. They have also moved the projected course westward slightly so that the eye of the storm will approach very closely to the coast of Florida near Daytona Beach on Friday morning before turning north and coming ashore nearer to the SC/GA border in SC at about noon Friday. The storm is expected to be near the VA/NC border, near Danville, at 8 AM Saturday morning, before passing central MD sometime around mid-day. The current track still allows it to pass over more than 800 miles of prime open water from its current position near the eastern tip of Cuba, then through the Bahamas and onward to landfall in SC. There will be plenty of opportunity for this storm to trap plenty of birds along the way, especially
 since it's not crossing the gulf stream as much as it's traveling along it.. 
 
I think the type of storm that you are referring to that would pick-up fewer birds are the ones that form close to land in the waters off the coast of GA/SC/NC and then move inland. These storms have few opportunities to trap birds in their forward edge before making landfall. I don't believe Hanna will have the difficulties with getting birds that you think it might. 
 
I suspect that there will be more alterations of the projected path of the storm in the next 24 hours as they try to get a handle where it really seems to want to go. Watch the advisories over the next 2 days to better plan your weekend's plans.
 Edward Boyd
Westminster, MD 



----- Original Message ----
From: Rob Hilton <>
To: 
Sent: Tuesday, September 2, 2008 11:54:28 AM
Subject: Re: [MDOSPREY] Hurricane Hannah and historical precedents

George, 

*Blue-footed* Booby?  So that means the frigatebird is
Lesser or Great, the tropicbird Red-tailed, and the petrel a Black
Storm- ?

I have been reminded that li'l ole Ernesto brought Sooty Terns and Long-tailed and Parasitic Jaegers to the DC/Montgomery County area..  Those are the kinds of birds I'm thinking of in conjunction with Hanna, assuming it does what the hurricane center is telling it to.  

Rob Hilton