I also thought it was a great question and like the suggestion.

One possible part of the story is that the number of
birder-looking-for-migrant hours might be increased by both the warm
weather and the reports thus far.  I guess e-bird collects effort, so it
would be possible to quantify whether that contributes. This would also fit
in with the 'some birds always come early and don't survive well enough to
be seen' idea.

All the best

Richard Edden

Baltimore


On Fri, Mar 23, 2012 at 11:41 AM, Ross Geredien <>wrote:

> Dave, this is a great question.
>
> I think that weather conditions that are stable and provide gentle
> assisting winds (i.e. from the south) are generally favorable to migrants.
>  And if food is available at each stopover, the warm weather tells these
> individuals that conditions are favorable to "keep going".  The warm
> weather has provided ample early insect hatchings, so food is not a
> question.
>
> The number of early migrants is still small, however, when compared to the
> main wave for most species.  That's because celestial and solar cues are
> probably still very powerful for many species and individuals.
>
> A very quick opinion, but I'm short on time.
>
> Ross
>
>
> ________________________________
>  From: David Mozurkewich <>
> To: 
> Sent: Friday, March 23, 2012 11:25 AM
> Subject: [MDOSPREY] Early arrivals
>
> Can anyone help me understand why there are so many early arrivals?
>
> Yes, this is a weird year.  It's been a crazy-warm winter and so far an
> even crazier spring.  I understand that birds seeing this warm weather
> may be tempted to move north, start singing, nesting, etc.  So far so
> good.
>
> B U T
>
> The problem I'm having is understanding the pattern of early arrivals.
> Sure, species like Gnatcatcher and Louisiana Waterthrush should already
> be in the southern part of the country so they know the weather is
> warmer than usual and may head north faster.  But species like Wood
> Thrush and Ruby-Throated Hummingbird spend the winter in the tropics.
> I have not yet had the pleasure of meeting a bird that can operate a
> weather radio or visit the internet.  They don't know the weather up
> here is warm and they should not be arriving early due to *our* warm
> weather.  Yet they're being reported.  Is there something I don't
> understand?  One possibility is there is always a vanguard of early
> migrants but with normal weather, they either starve or freeze before
> they have a chance to be reported.  Other idea?  Data?
>
> Dave
> David Mozurkewich
> Seabrook Prince George's, MD
>
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