MD Ospreyers and Chatters:

I'm no meteorologist, but as I sit here watching the weather reports and 
radar maps, Hurricane Wilma is about to batter Cape Sable and Florida Bay, 
south of a likely landfall of the eye around Naples, FL. Twenty-three years 
ago, a hurricane headed from the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, 
tracked northeast (keeping to the west of Florida) and then followed the 
east coast to about NC before it moved off into the Atlantic. This was 
Hurricane Agnes, in June 1972.

That hurricane likely deposited the Greater Flamingo that was discovered on 
Assateague Island, MD about two months later, although informal reports 
were that it had been present for a while. It stayed in the area for about 
another month. There were also other records of Greater Flamingo on the 
eastern seaboard that year.

Wilma is following the same general pattern, heading northeast from the 
Yucatan Peninsula, with the following exceptions; (1) instead of staying 
west of Florida, it is going to cross the southern tip of the state and it 
is probably going to hit Florida Bay with northerly hurricane force winds, 
also, the storm surge will likely inundate Florida Bay; (2) Wilma will 
track along the east coast, but it will be off-shore, rather than staying 
inland along the shore, and (3) Wilma appears to be a much stronger storm 
than was Agnes.

As we all know, Florida Bay is home to flock of at least 40 Greater 
Flamingos (the famous Snake Bight flock). I think the track of the storm, 
across southern Florida, and hurricane force winds in the Florida Bay would 
increase the probability of displacing flamingos, (but I'm only guessing); 
and perhaps the offshore Atlantic Ocean track may also increase 
displacement opportunities along the east coast (?). I'm not sure what to 
make of the differences in the timing of these hurricanes; Agnes was a June 
(!) storm, while, Wilma is an October event--so, the differences are the 
breeding season (Agnes) vs. post-breeding dispersal (Wilma).

Because of this, after the storm passes, in addition to the normal 
post-hurricane pelagic species watching, I would keep a lookout for while 
anywhere along the east coast for displaced southern Florida species. 
Besides Greater Flamingo, other MD reviewable candidates would include Wood 
Stork, Roseate Spoonbills, and (non-reviewable) White Ibis.

FYI, the track of the 1972 Hurricane Agnes can be found on these links ...

         http://www.floridadisaster.org/hurricane_aware/english/history.shtml#agnes

         http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at197202.asp

Knowledgeable meteorologists ... feel free to correct any of my guesswork ...

Phil


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Phil Davis      Davidsonville, Maryland     USA
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