I received this a while ago but wasn't sure if it was appropriately local. 
 
Leslie Starr
 (mailto:[log in to unmask]) 
Baltimore
 
 
In a message dated 9/19/2008 5:10:54 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time,  
 writes:

The latest just in from Ron Pittaway in Ontario . . . 
 
GENERAL FORECAST
This winter's theme is where will crossbills go  and will they irrupt
south? Both species wandered widely this summer.  Cone crops are poor
in the Atlantic Provinces and fair to moderate in  Western Canada. In
Ontario, spruce crops are fair to good west and  east of Lake Superior 

and in central Ontario such as Algonquin  Park, but cone abundance
diminishes rapidly northwards into the  boreal forest. White pine
(Ontario's provincial tree) has heavy cone  crops in most areas. The
hemlock crop is poor in central Ontario. The  white birch crop is fair 

to good west and east of Lake Superior  to Lake Ontario, but poor in
the boreal forest. The mountain-ash  (rowan berry) crop is excellent
in Ontario and Western Canada, but  poor in the Atlantic Provinces.
Individual finch forecasts below  apply mainly to Ontario, but
adjacent provinces and states may find  the forecast of interest. I
also comment on three irruptive  passerines and two boreal forest 
raptors.

INDIVIDUAL FINCH  FORECASTS
Pine Grosbeak: A mountain-ash berry specialist in winter,  Pine
Grosbeaks will stay north of most birders this winter  because
mountain-ash berries are abundant in northern Ontario. A few  normally 

get south to Algonquin Park, but they are unlikely  farther south.

Purple Finch: This finch stays in the north only  when most tree
species have heavy seed crops. This fall most Purple  Finches will
migrate south out of the province because overall tree  seed crops are 

too low. A very few may winter in southern  Ontario.

Red Crossbill: This crossbill comprises nine ecotypes in  North
America; each has cone(s) preferences related to bill size and  shape. 

The Types are difficult to identify in the field. Types 2  and 3 and
probably 4 occur in Ontario. The white pine Type 2 is  apparently the
most frequently encountered Red Crossbill in the  province (Simard
2007 in Atlas of Breeding Birds of Ontario). Since  white pine has
abundant crops in most areas, expect Type 2s to be  widespread in
small numbers. Hemlock Type 3 (subspecies sitkensis of  AOU Check-list 

1957) prefers the small cones of hemlock and  white spruce when bumper 

in Ontario. Type 3s should be absent  from the province this winter
because the hemlock crop is poor and  the white spruce crop is
average. Other Types are possible this  winter given the bumper white
pine cone crop and good crop on red  pine. The Red Crossbill complex
very much needs further  study.

White-winged Crossbill: This crossbill wandered widely  this past
summer searching for extensive spruce cone crops. Reports  came from
Alaska, Yukon, Hudson Bay Lowlands, Ontario, Quebec and  many northern 

states such as Michigan and New York. Most kept  moving but some
stopped and their singing suggested nesting but  spruce cone crops are 

generally not large enough in most areas  to support major nestings.
The White-winged Crossbill specializes on  the small soft cones of
black and white spruces and hemlock when  bumper in Ontario. This
winter they should be widespread in small  numbers in traditional
areas such as Algonquin Park. However, spruce  cone crops are
generally low in most of Canada and as seed supplies  are exhausted
this fall and winter so a moderate southward irruption  is probable,
perhaps extending south into the central United States.  Watch for
them on ornamental spruces and European  larch.

Common and Hoary Redpolls: The Common Redpoll is a white  birch seed
specialist in the boreal forest in winter. White birch  crops are poor 

in the northern two-thirds of the boreal forest,  but seed abundance
increases southward. In central Ontario, such as  Algonquin Park,
crops on white and yellow birches range from fair to  good. It is
uncertain whether the birch crop is large enough to stop  the
southward movement in central Ontario about latitude 45 degrees.  Some 

redpolls, including a few Hoarys, may get south to Lake  Ontario if
birch seed supplies run low.

Pine Siskin: A conifer  seed specialist in winter, most siskins should 

leave the  province this fall because the spruce cone crop is poor in
the boreal  forest. It is uncertain whether the huge white pine seed
crop will  keep some siskins in central and northern Ontario this  
winter.

Evening Grosbeak: A conifer and hardwood seed  generalist in winter,
Evening Grosbeaks should make a small southward  movement this winter
because food supplies are probably sufficient in  the north. Older
birders remember the 1970s when the Evening Grosbeak  was a common
feeder bird. Their memory is based on the greatly  inflated numbers 30 

years ago in Eastern Canada due to huge  outbreaks of spruce budworm.
The last Algonquin Christmas Bird Count  to have high numbers of
Evening Grosbeaks was in 1984 with 1474  individuals, which was the
North American CBC record that year. A  significant decline in
grosbeak numbers began in the mid-1980s  because the size of annual
budworm outbreaks decreased. Ontario's  breeding population is
currently probably stable, subject to periodic  fluctuations in spruce 

budworm (Hoar 2007 in Atlas of Breeding  Birds of Ontario).

THREE IRRUPTIVE PASSERINES
Red-breasted  Nuthatch: Movements of this nuthatch are linked to cone
crop  abundance, particularly spruce, white pine and balsam fir in
Ontario.  Good numbers of Red-breasted Nuthatches should winter in
Ontario this  year feeding on the bumper white pine seed crop and good  

spruce/fir crops in many areas such as Algonquin  Park.

Bohemian Waxwing: Like the Pine Grosbeak, this waxwing is  a
mountain-ash berry specialist in winter. Mountain-ash crops  are
excellent across northern Ontario (bumper around Lake Superior)  so
very few Bohemians will wander out of the boreal forest this  winter.
Some may get south into traditional wintering areas of  central
Ontario such as Orillia, Peterborough and Ottawa where  European
mountain-ash berries are in good supply.

Blue Jay:  Good numbers of jays will winter in central Ontario because 

the  red oak acorn crop is good and beechnut crop is fair in  central
Ontario. Many other fruits and berries are abundant.  Therefore this
fall's flight should be average or smaller along the  shorelines of
Lakes Ontario and Erie.

BOREAL  RAPTORS
Northern Goshawk: A small flight is possible this fall  because high
snowshoe hare populations have declined in much of  northern Ontario.
However, grouse numbers (Ruffed, Spruce,  Sharp-tailed) are generally
good so they may buffer the decline in  hares.

Boreal Owl: Small mammal populations have crashed across  northern and 

central Ontario. In Quebec, Pascal Cote of  Observatoire d'oiseaux de
Tadoussac expects a flight of Boreal Owls  this fall and winter
following their 4 year cycle linked to  red-backed voles. Southern
Ontario may get Boreal Owls and other  northern forest owls this 
winter.

WHERE TO SEE FINCHES: A  winter trip to Algonquin Park is a birding
adventure. The park is a  mix of boreal and hardwood habitats only a
three hour drive north of  Toronto. Kilometre distances are marked
from the west entrance. Watch  carefully for crossbills and other
finches in early morning eating  road salt and sand. Two excellent
birding spots are the Spruce Bog  Trail at km 42.5 and the gate area
on the Opeongo Road about 4 km  north from km 46 on the highway. Watch 

and listen for finches,  Gray Jay, Boreal Chickadee, Spruce Grouse and 

Black-backed  Woodpecker. The Visitor Centre and restaurant at km 43
are open only  on weekends in winter. An observation deck overlooks a
spectacular  bog and black spruce forest. The feeders attract Evening
Grosbeak,  Pine Grosbeak, Common Redpoll and other finches depending
on the  winter. Gray Jays frequent the suet feeder and sometimes a
pine  marten or fisher goes to the suet. Eastern Canadian Wolves
(Canis  lycaon) are seen occasionally from the observation deck
feeding on  road-killed moose put out by park staff. Arrangements can
be made to  view feeders on weekdays. For information call the Visitor  

Centre at 613-637-2828.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: I thank staff  of the Ontario Ministry of Natural
Resources (OMNR) and birders whose  reports allow me to make annual
forecasts: Dennis Barry (Durham  Region), Ken Corston (OMNR Moosonee), 

Pascal Cote (Tadoussac,  Quebec), Shirley Davidson (OMNR Minden),
Bruce Di Labio (Ottawa to  Moosonee), Carrolle Eady (Dryden), Cameron
Eckert (Yukon), Bruce  Falls (Brodie Club, Toronto), Brian Fox (OMNR), 

Marcel Gahbauer  (Alberta), Michel Gosselin (Canadian Museum of
Nature), Skye Haas  (Michigan), Charity Hendry (Ontario Tree Seed
Plant), Leo Heyens  (OMNR Kenora), Tyler Hoar (Laurentians and
Northeastern Quebec),  Peter Hynard (Haliburton County), Jean Iron
(Northeastern  Ontario/James Bay), Christine Kerrigan and Peter Nevin
(Parry Sound  District), Richard Pope (Lake Superior), Bruce Mactavish  

(Newfoundland), Erwin Meissner (West Sudbury District),  Scott
McPherson (OMNR), Brian Naylor (OMNR North Bay), Larry  Neily
(Ottawa), Stephen O'Donnell (Parry Sound District), Fred  Pinto
(OMNR), Betsy Potter (Wilson, New York), Gord Ross (OMNR  Moosonee),
Rick Salmon (OMNR Nipigon), Don Sutherland (OMNR), Eve  Ticknor
(Ottawa), Ron Tozer (Algonquin Park), Declan Troy (Alaska),  Mike
Turner (OMNR Minden), Stan Vasiliauskas (OMNR), Mike Walsh  (OMNR
Muskoka/Parry Sound), Ben Walters (Northeastern Ontario),  Alan
Wormington (Point Pelee), Matt Young whose posts on New York  State
listservs were informative, and Kirk Zufelt (Sault Ste Marie).  I
thank Ron Tozer for ongoing discussions on winter finches and  Jean
Iron for proofing the forecast.

PREVIOUS FINCH FORECASTS  archived at Larry Neily's  website.
http://www.neilyworld.com/pittaway-old.htm

The  recently published ATLAS OF BREEDING BIRDS OF ONTARIO 2007  has
detailed peer-reviewed information and maps on boreal winter  finches. 

I highly recommend  it.
http://www.birdsontario.org/atlas/index.jsp

Ron  Pittaway
Minden and Toronto ON
18 September  2008


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